Am Montag, den 12. Juli 2021, 16:00 - 17:30, wird Amelie Wuppermann (Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg) ihre Forschung präsentieren:
The Toll of Voting in a Pandemic? Municipal Elections and the Spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria
This study investigates whether the municipal elections that were held on March 15, 2020 in Bavaria -- shortly after the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic -- contributed to the spread of COVID-19 cases and COVID-related deaths in this German state. Constructing synthetic controls for each of Bavaria's 96 districts based on the other German districts, we find that about 86 per 100,000 -- over a third of the increase in positive test results between March 15 and April 4 in Bavaria -- cannot be explained by district-level demographic, economic, health or child care characteristics, nor by the distance to Ischgl. Furthermore, within Bavaria, districts with higher voter participation had a higher increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths after the election, even when holding other drivers of the spread of the virus, such as distance to Ischgl and strong-beer festivals constant. Our results are highly robust and suggest that elections can be spreaders of infectious diseases. They call for future research to investigate the role of elections for the spread of infectious diseases.
Raum: Aufgrund der aktuellen Lage in Bezug auf die COVID-19-Pandemie findet der Vortrag in einem virtuellen Seminarraum statt. Für mehr Informationen klicken Sie bitte hier.
Am Montag, den 12. Juli 2021, 16:00 - 17:30, wird Marisa Miraldo (Imperial College) ihre Forschung präsentieren:
Innovation Diffusion and Physician Networks: Keyhole Surgery for Cancer in the English NHS
We examine the effect of a physician network on medical innovation using novel matched patient-physician-hospital panel data. The data include every relevant physician and all patients in the English NHS for 15 years and physicians’ workplace histories for more than 20. The dynamic network arising from physician mobility between hospitals over time allows us to separate unobserved physician and hospital heterogeneity from the effect of the network. We build on standard peer-effects models by adding cumulative peer behaviour and allow for particularly influential physicians (‘key players’), whose identities we estimate. We find positive effects of peer innovation take-up, number of peers, and proximity in the network to both pioneers of the innovation and key players. Counterfactual estimates suggest that early intervention targeting young, connected physicians with early take-up can significantly increase aggregate take-up.
Room: Due to the current situation regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, the talk will be held in a virtual seminar room. For more information click here.
Abstract: We show that downsizing has substantial externalities on the health of workers who remain in the firm. To this end, we study mass layoff (ML) survivors in Austria, using workers who survive a ML themselves, but a few years in the future, as a control group. Based on high-quality administrative data, we find evidence that downsizing has persistent effects on mental and physical health, and that these effects can be explained by workers fearing for their own jobs. We also show that health externalities due to downsizing imply non-negligible cost for firms, and that wage cuts may have similar effects.